RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Indonesian rupiah is expected to experience a period of limited appreciation as global currency markets react to the latest geopolitical friction from Washington.

Investors are currently calculating the economic fallout of potential new US tariffs on nations opposing American interests in Greenland, a move that has weakened the US dollar index early Monday morning, January 19, 2026.

Currency analyst Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures noted that the Rupiah may see restricted gains as the market shifts into a "risk-off" mode. This sentiment stems from President Donald Trump's recent threat to impose additional import tariffs on countries, particularly European allies, that do not support the US bid to acquire Greenland.

Trump has argued that controlling the resource-rich Danish autonomous territory is a matter of US national security, specifically to counter the growing presence of China and Russia in the Arctic region. While this geopolitical uncertainty has softened the Greenback, it also creates a cautious atmosphere for emerging market currencies.

"The rupiah probably won't strengthen much and still has the potential to weaken due to risk-off sentiment stemming from this escalation," Lukman explained on Monday, as quoted by

Domestic focus is simultaneously shifting toward the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) scheduled for Wednesday, January 21. Most analysts anticipate that the central bank will opt to keep interest rates steady to maintain currency stability amidst global turbulence.

However, the primary interest for investors lies in the post-meeting communication. Markets are looking for clarity regarding the future trajectory of Indonesian interest rates and how BI plans to navigate the potential trade disruptions caused by shifts in US trade policy.

During the opening session in Jakarta on Monday, the rupiah initially weakened by 17 points or 0.10 percent, trading at IDR 16,904 per USD compared to the previous close of IDR 16,887. Despite this slight dip, analysts believe the currency has room to recover slightly throughout the day.

Based on current global and domestic factors, the rupiah is predicted to fluctuate within a range of IDR 16,850 to IDR 16,950 per USD for the remainder of the trading session. ***